DC United — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
DC United and Columbus Crew appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight edge in the sense that a home win or draw is favored over an away victory, but the gap between the teams remains limited. That points to a contest where neither side is likely to have sustained control throughout.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. A balanced exchange of chances could make a draw a realistic outcome, while the game may also be decided by which side makes better use of its opportunities. The range of likely scorelines reflects that uncertainty, with a one-goal margin in either direction also possible. Overall, the outlook is for a competitive fixture in which DC United have some protection from home advantage, but Columbus Crew remain fully capable of taking points.
What matters before kick-off
D.C. United's previous match postponed
D.C. United's scheduled fixture against FC Cincinnati on September 5, 2026, was postponed due to inclement weather and pitch conditions.
Player availability for Matchday 25
According to the official MLS Player Status Report for September 9, 2026, the Columbus Crew rule out Wessam Abou Ali, Sekou Bangoura, and Rudy Camacho, while D.C. United will be without Gabe Segal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.