Houston Dynamo — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Houston Dynamo enter this MLS meeting with a slight but well-supported edge over Real Salt Lake. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, while the visitors remain capable of creating enough danger to keep the contest close. The most likely outcome is therefore a result favouring Houston Dynamo or a draw, rather than a clear separation between the teams.
The game is expected to produce a moderate number of goals, with both Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake likely to score. That combination suggests an open but balanced encounter, where defensive control may be difficult to maintain for the full match. A 1:1 draw is among the leading scorelines, while 2:1 and 2:0 also reflect the home side's slight advantage. Real Salt Lake should not be discounted, but Houston Dynamo have the clearer platform to take control of the decisive moments.
What matters before kick-off
Real Salt Lake availability report
Real Salt Lake have several players ruled out for the match due to injuries, including Justen Glad, Ariath Piol, Zach Booth, and Griffin Dillon.
Houston Dynamo home fixture
Houston Dynamo return to Shell Energy Stadium to host Real Salt Lake in a midweek Western Conference MLS fixture.
Real Salt Lake head-to-head streak
Real Salt Lake have won their last three consecutive matches against Houston Dynamo across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.