Minnesota United FC — FC Dallas: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.3% / 13.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.4% / 56.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 4:5
- 30.08.2026 home Orlando City 3:3
- 23.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 5:1
- 20.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:3
- 31.08.2026 away St. Louis City 3:3
- 23.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 0:5
- 20.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 4:3
- 17.08.2026 away Austin FC 2:1
This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs FC Dallas away
| Metric | Minnesota United FC · at home | FC Dallas · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 2–6–3 | 6–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.77 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 69% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2026 FC Dallas 0:1 Minnesota United FC
- 05.07.2025 FC Dallas 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 20.04.2025 Minnesota United FC 0:0 FC Dallas
- 20.06.2024 FC Dallas 5:3 Minnesota United FC
- 09.06.2024 Minnesota United FC 1:1 FC Dallas
- 01.05.2023 Minnesota United FC 0:0 FC Dallas
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Minnesota United FC host FC Dallas in an MLS fixture that points toward an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives Minnesota United FC a slight edge, with the home side appearing more likely to avoid defeat than FC Dallas. This is not a wide gap between the teams, so the match may remain balanced for long periods, particularly if FC Dallas can maintain its attacking threat away from home.
The scoring outlook is positive, with both teams likely to find the net and the game carrying the profile of a high-scoring encounter. That combination makes a narrow home win a plausible scenario, while a draw also remains a realistic outcome. The most consistent scoreline options are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting a contest in which Minnesota United FC have the stronger overall position but FC Dallas retain enough attacking potential to influence the result.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
According to the official MLS player availability report, FC Dallas forward Anderson Julio is out with a lower body injury, while Petar Musa is listed as questionable. For Minnesota United FC, Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Peter Stroud are ruled out with injuries.
Recent results
FC Dallas enter the match following a high-scoring 4-3 home victory over Sporting Kansas City. Meanwhile, Minnesota United FC fell short in a 5-4 away defeat against Portland Timbers in their last outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.