Chicago Fire — Inter Miami CF: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.1% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 60.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Chicago Fire and Inter Miami CF appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available indicators point toward an open contest rather than a fixture likely to be controlled by one side. With both teams considered likely to score, the balance between them may leave limited room for a cautious approach, particularly if an early goal changes the game state.
The overall scoring outlook is high, suggesting that the match could develop through chances at both ends rather than a long spell of containment. Neither Chicago Fire nor Inter Miami CF has a clear advantage in the supplied assessment, so the key feature is the prospect of mutual attacking contributions. A draw with goals is consistent with the evaluation, although the same attacking profile also leaves room for a narrow result if one team makes better use of its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire return to Soldier Field
Chicago Fire return home to Soldier Field following a four-game road trip that ended in a 4-4 draw against Toronto FC. Inter Miami CF enter the match after a 2-2 draw with Atlanta United FC.
Lionel Messi milestone for Inter Miami
In Inter Miami's recent fixture against Atlanta United FC, Lionel Messi recorded two assists. He became the first player in MLS history to achieve 30 goal contributions in three separate campaigns.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.