Chicago Fire — Inter Miami CF: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.1% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 60.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Toronto FC 4:4
- 29.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Orlando City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home CF Montreal 7:1
- 23.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:2
- 20.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Nashville SC 1:4
This season: Chicago Fire at home vs Inter Miami CF away
| Metric | Chicago Fire · at home | Inter Miami CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–0–3 | 8–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.10 | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.07.2026 Inter Miami CF 3:2 Chicago Fire
- 01.10.2025 Inter Miami CF 3:5 Chicago Fire
- 13.04.2025 Chicago Fire 0:0 Inter Miami CF
- 01.09.2024 Chicago Fire 1:4 Inter Miami CF
- 21.07.2024 Inter Miami CF 2:1 Chicago Fire
- 05.10.2023 Chicago Fire 4:1 Inter Miami CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chicago Fire and Inter Miami CF appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available indicators point toward an open contest rather than a fixture likely to be controlled by one side. With both teams considered likely to score, the balance between them may leave limited room for a cautious approach, particularly if an early goal changes the game state.
The overall scoring outlook is high, suggesting that the match could develop through chances at both ends rather than a long spell of containment. Neither Chicago Fire nor Inter Miami CF has a clear advantage in the supplied assessment, so the key feature is the prospect of mutual attacking contributions. A draw with goals is consistent with the evaluation, although the same attacking profile also leaves room for a narrow result if one team makes better use of its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire return to Soldier Field
Chicago Fire return home to Soldier Field following a four-game road trip that ended in a 4-4 draw against Toronto FC. Inter Miami CF enter the match after a 2-2 draw with Atlanta United FC.
Lionel Messi milestone for Inter Miami
In Inter Miami's recent fixture against Atlanta United FC, Lionel Messi recorded two assists. He became the first player in MLS history to achieve 30 goal contributions in three separate campaigns.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.