Toronto FC — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 19.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away New York City 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 23.07.2026 away New England Revolution 0:0
- 17.07.2026 away CF Montreal 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:1
- 02.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 25.07.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 23.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home New England Revolution 1:0
This season: Toronto FC at home vs Charlotte FC away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | Charlotte FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 3–5–2 | 2–1–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.90 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.90 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 63% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Charlotte FC 3:1 Toronto FC
- 27.07.2025 Charlotte FC 2:0 Toronto FC
- 01.06.2025 Toronto FC 0:2 Charlotte FC
- 14.04.2024 Charlotte FC 3:2 Toronto FC
- 09.03.2024 Toronto FC 1:0 Charlotte FC
- 05.10.2023 Charlotte FC 3:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toronto FC and Charlotte FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight positional advantage, but the confidence is moderate rather than strong. That suggests a contest in which neither side is expected to control the match consistently, with the balance potentially shifting between phases.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. Toronto FC may benefit from home advantage, while Charlotte FC remain well placed to challenge them and keep the result uncertain. A draw is a credible possibility, although a narrow win for either team also fits the overall picture. The most plausible score patterns point to a close, competitive encounter rather than a one-sided result.
What matters before kick-off
Djordje Mihailovic suspended for Toronto FC
Toronto FC midfielder Djordje Mihailovic will miss the match against Charlotte FC due to a red card received in their previous game against the New England Revolution.
Toronto FC captain Jonathan Osorio sidelined
Toronto FC captain Jonathan Osorio is out after suffering a knee injury during training.
Charlotte FC enter following victory over Columbus Crew
In their previous MLS fixture, Charlotte FC secured a 3-1 win against Columbus Crew with goals from Brandt Bronico, Liel Abada, and Pep Biel.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.