Orlando City SC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 19.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.9% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.7% / 67.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:1
- 02.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:3
- 26.07.2026 home Nashville SC 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:6
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
- 02.08.2026 home Charlotte 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away New York City 1:3
- 23.07.2026 away Inter Miami 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Toronto FC 2:1
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–3 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.78 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.56 | 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.10.2025 Chicago Fire 3:1 Orlando City SC
- 01.06.2025 Orlando City SC 1:3 Chicago Fire
- 04.05.2025 Chicago Fire 0:0 Orlando City SC
- 23.06.2024 Orlando City SC 4:2 Chicago Fire
- 30.05.2024 Chicago Fire 1:1 Orlando City SC
- 21.08.2023 Chicago Fire 1:3 Orlando City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Orlando City SC host Chicago Fire in an MLS meeting that looks closely balanced on the available signals. The overall assessment is that the teams are evenly matched, so neither side enters with a clearly defined advantage. That suggests a contest likely to remain competitive across both halves, with the result potentially shaped by small differences in finishing and defensive concentration.
The stronger indication concerns the attacking profile of the match. It is expected to be high-scoring, with both Orlando City SC and Chicago Fire likely to find the net. That makes a cautious, low-event game less likely and points instead toward an open encounter with opportunities at both ends. The most plausible score patterns include a draw or a narrow victory for either team, with 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1 reflecting the uncertainty around the final outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire road trip
Chicago Fire kick off a four-match MLS road trip with a visit to Orlando City. The visitors enter the match on a five-game winning streak across all competitions.
Team availability report
According to the official status report, Orlando City will be without Braian Ojeda, Martín Ojeda, and Bernardo Rhein due to injuries. Chicago Fire's injury list includes André Franco and Mbekezeli Mbokazi.
Sam Williams recalled by Chicago Fire
Ahead of the match against Orlando City, Chicago Fire recalled midfielder Sam Williams from his loan with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, making him available for selection.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.