FC Cincinnati — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 19.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.3% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Orlando City 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 4:2
- 26.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:2
- 23.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 4:3
- 24.05.2026 home Orlando City 6:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 01.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:1
- 23.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 24.05.2026 away Nashville SC 1:2
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs New York City FC away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | New York City FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 6–1–2 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.11 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.11 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 63% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2026 New York City FC 4:4 FC Cincinnati
- 24.08.2025 FC Cincinnati 0:1 New York City FC
- 04.05.2025 New York City FC 1:0 FC Cincinnati
- 09.11.2024 FC Cincinnati 0:0 New York City FC
- 02.11.2024 New York City FC 3:1 FC Cincinnati
- 28.10.2024 FC Cincinnati 1:0 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Cincinnati host New York City FC in an MLS fixture that points toward an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives FC Cincinnati a slight edge, with high confidence, but not enough to suggest a one-sided match. New York City FC remain capable of contributing to the attacking phase, and the overall profile indicates that both teams are likely to score.
The high-scoring expectation should make this a game shaped by attacking intent rather than prolonged caution. FC Cincinnati may be better placed to control the key moments, especially with home advantage, while New York City FC can keep the contest balanced if they convert their opportunities. The most plausible scenarios include a draw or a narrow home victory, with a clean-sheet win also among the considered outcomes. Overall, the analysis supports protection against defeat for FC Cincinnati, while leaving room for New York City FC to make the match close.
What matters before kick-off
New York City FC Availability Issues
New York City FC head coach Pascal Jansen will be without eight players for the match against FC Cincinnati, including Alonso Martínez and Hannes Wolf who are sidelined with leg injuries.
FC Cincinnati Home Form
FC Cincinnati enters the fixture on a three-game home winning streak in MLS play at TQL Stadium, while New York City FC is looking to bounce back after a 3-2 defeat to the Philadelphia Union.
FC Cincinnati Attacking Record
FC Cincinnati were tied for the most goals scored in MLS entering the match, having scored four or more goals in each of their previous three home league games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.