Toronto FC — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:2
- 20.09.2026 away St. Louis City 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:3
- 10.09.2026 home Nashville SC 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 4:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:1
- 20.09.2026 home Columbus Crew 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 10.09.2026 home Charlotte 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:2
This season: Toronto FC at home vs CF Montreal away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | CF Montreal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 4–8–2 | 2–1–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.07 | 1.15 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 77% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 46% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.07.2026 CF Montreal 0:0 Toronto FC
- 31.08.2025 Toronto FC 1:1 CF Montreal
- 17.05.2025 CF Montreal 1:6 Toronto FC
- 21.07.2024 CF Montreal 0:1 Toronto FC
- 19.05.2024 Toronto FC 5:1 CF Montreal
- 21.08.2023 Toronto FC 2:3 CF Montreal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toronto FC host CF Montreal in an MLS fixture where the home side carries a clear structural advantage, even if recent form on both sides has been uneven. Toronto FC have lost three of their last five matches, but their body of work at home this season tells a different story: fourteen matches played, only two defeats, and a solid base of four wins and eight draws. That resilience in front of their own crowd is the single most telling fact going into this meeting.
CF Montreal arrive in a difficult moment on the road. Their away record this season reads two wins against ten defeats across thirteen trips, with fifteen goals scored and thirty-six conceded. Recent form echoes that pattern, with four losses in their last five outings. The head-to-head picture also leans toward the hosts, who have won three of the previous six encounters, drawn two and lost only one, although the last meeting ended goalless.
Taken together, the hosts hold a slight edge rather than a commanding one. Toronto FC's steadiness at home and CF Montreal's travel struggles point toward a match the hosts are well placed to control, with scoring chances likely at both ends given the goals both teams have shipped recently.
What matters before kick-off
CF Montreal's recent match result
In their previous MLS match on September 26, CF Montreal secured a 3-1 home victory against FC Cincinnati thanks to a brace from Prince Owusu and a goal from Daniel Rios.
Toronto FC recent run of form
Toronto FC entered the rivalry fixture sitting 13th in the Eastern Conference with 29 points, looking to bounce back from a three-match losing streak that included a 2-0 defeat to Nashville SC.
Head-to-head record in MLS
CF Montreal holds an overall all-time MLS record of 14 wins, 17 losses, and 7 draws against rivalry opponents Toronto FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.