New England Revolution — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.2% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
- 13.09.2026 away Chicago Fire 2:1
- 10.09.2026 away New York City 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 27.09.2026 home Minnesota United 3:1
- 24.09.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Colorado Rapids 3:3
- 13.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
This season: New England Revolution at home vs Seattle Sounders away
| Metric | New England Revolution · at home | Seattle Sounders · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 9–2–2 | 3–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.07.2024 Seattle Sounders 2:0 New England Revolution
- 10.08.2019 Seattle Sounders 3:3 New England Revolution
- 08.07.2018 New England Revolution 0:0 Seattle Sounders
- 30.04.2017 Seattle Sounders 3:3 New England Revolution
- 29.05.2016 New England Revolution 2:1 Seattle Sounders
- 09.03.2015 Seattle Sounders 3:0 New England Revolution
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New England Revolution host Seattle Sounders in an MLS fixture where the strongest argument sits in the home record. Across thirteen matches at home this season, New England Revolution have taken nine wins against just two defeats, scoring twenty-six goals in the process. That is a clear platform, and recent form has been uneven but productive, with three wins in the last five and nine goals scored over that stretch.
Seattle Sounders arrive unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, which cannot be ignored. Their away numbers tell a different story, however: thirteen trips have brought only three victories, five draws and five losses, with more goals conceded than scored. The head-to-head is also mixed rather than decisive, as six meetings have produced one home win, three draws and two away wins, the most recent being Seattle Sounders 2-0 New England Revolution in 2024.
Taken together, the picture points to a slight edge for the hosts, grounded in their home consistency rather than any dominance in the overall matchup. Both sides have been scoring regularly in recent weeks, so an open contest with goals at both ends is a reasonable expectation.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.