New York Red Bulls — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.9% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 62.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.3% / 65.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.10.2026 home St. Louis City 0:3
- 19.09.2026 away New York City 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Austin FC 3:3
- 21.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
- 14.09.2026 home Philadelphia Union 0:5
- 10.09.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:1
This season: New York Red Bulls at home vs San Diego FC away
| Metric | New York Red Bulls · at home | San Diego FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–6 | 2–5–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York Red Bulls welcome San Diego FC in an MLS fixture that looks finely balanced on paper. The hosts have taken two wins, a draw and two defeats across their last five, scoring two and conceding five in that stretch, which hints at a defence that has struggled to settle. Their home record this season tells a similar story: thirteen matches played, four won and six lost, with twenty-six goals conceded on their own ground. The backline has leaked often enough to shape how this one unfolds.
San Diego FC arrive without a win in their last five, collecting only two draws, and have shipped fourteen goals in that run. On the road this season they have managed two victories from thirteen attempts, drawing five and losing six, with twenty-three goals conceded away from home. The attacking output, however, remains steady, with fifteen goals scored on their travels.
Taken together, the recent form and defensive numbers on both sides point to an open contest between two teams that are evenly matched. With neither back line looking especially secure, goals at both ends feel like the most natural reading of the available evidence, even if the final outcome remains genuinely difficult to call.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.