Orlando City SC — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:4
- 20.09.2026 away New England Revolution 2:4
- 13.09.2026 home Toronto FC 3:0
- 10.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 3:2
- 06.09.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.09.2026 home Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
- 13.09.2026 home New York Red Bulls 0:1
- 10.09.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:0
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs Columbus Crew away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | Columbus Crew · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–4 | 2–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.54 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 2.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 85% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 85% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.04.2026 Columbus Crew 1:1 Orlando City SC
- 05.10.2025 Orlando City SC 1:1 Columbus Crew
- 26.07.2025 Columbus Crew 1:3 Orlando City SC
- 22.09.2024 Columbus Crew 4:3 Orlando City SC
- 26.05.2024 Orlando City SC 0:2 Columbus Crew
- 25.11.2023 Orlando City SC 0:0 Columbus Crew
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Orlando City SC welcome Columbus Crew to an MLS fixture that carries a clear thread of recent context, with the hosts holding a slight edge on paper. Orlando come in on a solid run of three wins in their last five, and their home record this season — seven victories from thirteen outings — speaks to a venue where they tend to impose themselves. Columbus, meanwhile, have also won three of their last five, but the away picture is less flattering: only two wins in thirteen road trips, with 27 goals conceded on their travels.
The head-to-head record complicates the narrative. Across six meetings these sides have produced three draws and only one Orlando win, while Columbus have taken two. The last encounter finished 1-1, reinforcing the sense that these teams rarely separate cleanly. Goals, though, have been a feature on both sides lately, with Orlando scoring eleven in their last five and Columbus adding eight of their own.
Taken together, the home venue strength tilts the balance toward Orlando City SC, yet Columbus Crew's history against this opponent suggests resistance. A tight, open contest in which both teams find the net looks like the most coherent reading of the available numbers.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.