Philadelphia Union — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.3% |
| 12 | 82.3% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
- 20.09.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 4:3
- 14.09.2026 away San Diego FC 5:0
- 10.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 5:0
- 06.09.2026 home CF Montreal 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home New England Revolution 3:0
- 24.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home New York City 0:2
- 10.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 1:2
This season: Philadelphia Union at home vs Real Salt Lake away
| Metric | Philadelphia Union · at home | Real Salt Lake · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–3 | 1–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 77% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.04.2024 Philadelphia Union 1:2 Real Salt Lake
- 14.07.2019 Real Salt Lake 4:0 Philadelphia Union
- 20.05.2018 Philadelphia Union 4:1 Real Salt Lake
- 28.05.2017 Real Salt Lake 1:0 Philadelphia Union
- 01.08.2016 Philadelphia Union 1:2 Real Salt Lake
- 15.03.2015 Real Salt Lake 3:3 Philadelphia Union
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Philadelphia Union arrive at this MLS fixture in exceptional form, having won each of their last five matches while scoring 20 goals and conceding only 5. Real Salt Lake, by contrast, come in with just one win from their last five and nine goals conceded over that same stretch. Away from home this season, Real Salt Lake have struggled badly, taking just one win from thirteen trips and shipping 24 goals in the process. These contrasting trajectories point to a clear edge for the hosts.
The head-to-head picture adds a note of caution, however. The two sides have met six times, with Real Salt Lake taking four of those encounters, including the most recent fixture that finished Philadelphia Union 1-2 Real Salt Lake in 2024. That history suggests the visitors have a knack for troubling this opponent, even when form points elsewhere.
Weighing current momentum against the longer record, the hosts are the stronger side with moderate confidence rather than certainty. The attacking output on both sides, combined with Real Salt Lake's defensive issues on the road, hints at an open contest where both teams could find the net, with Philadelphia Union holding the upper hand on the balance of play.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.