Chicago Fire — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026

Chicago Fire welcome New York City FC in an MLS fixture where the home side appears to hold a slight edge on current form, even if the broader picture is more nuanced. The most telling number is the hosts' home record this season: eight wins from thirteen matches at their own ground, with twenty-five goals scored. That return underpins the sense that Chicago Fire are a difficult proposition on home soil, and recent form of two wins in the last five adds a measure of consistency to that profile.

The counterweight comes from the head-to-head, where the visitors have been dominant. New York City FC have won four of the last six meetings between the sides without a single defeat, including a 3-1 result in their most recent encounter. On the road this season, their record is more modest, with four wins and five draws from thirteen trips, but they have been difficult to beat.

Taken together, the matchup leans gently toward the hosts based on venue strength, yet the away side's historical mastery of this fixture tempers that lean considerably. Both teams have shown the capacity to score, and the goals columns on either side suggest an open contest rather than a cagey one.