Torino FC — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.1% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 84.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.00 → now 5.75 |
Match preview
Torino FC face AS Roma in a Serie A contest where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The assessment points toward AS Roma being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. Torino FC will need to remain compact and limit the spaces available to AS Roma, particularly if the visitors are able to control possession and establish pressure in advanced areas.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring viewed as an evenly balanced possibility. That leaves room for Torino FC to contribute on the scoresheet, even while AS Roma remain the more likely team to impose themselves. The main scoreline indications range from a level 1-1 draw to AS Roma victories by 2-0 or 2-1, reflecting a contest that may stay competitive but still leans toward the away side.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.