Atalanta BC — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 75.9% | |
| X2 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Atalanta BC
8th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Roma 1:2
- 31.08.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 22.05.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Bologna 0:1
Cagliari Calcio
9th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 home Lecce 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Inter 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Parma 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Milan 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Torino 2:1
This season: Atalanta BC at home vs Cagliari Calcio away
| Metric | Atalanta BC · at home | Cagliari Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.53 | 0.94 |
| xG against per match | 2.03 | 0.75 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.04.2026 Cagliari Calcio 3:2 Atalanta BC
- 13.12.2025 Atalanta BC 2:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 15.02.2025 Atalanta BC 0:0 Cagliari Calcio
- 14.12.2024 Cagliari Calcio 0:1 Atalanta BC
- 07.04.2024 Cagliari Calcio 2:1 Atalanta BC
- 24.09.2023 Atalanta BC 2:0 Cagliari Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atalanta BC meet Cagliari Calcio in Serie A with a slight edge given to the home side, although the low confidence level points to a competitive and open contest rather than a clear mismatch. Atalanta BC should benefit from playing at home, but the available assessment does not support treating their advantage as decisive. Cagliari Calcio remain capable of making the match difficult, particularly if they can keep the game balanced through its key phases.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with a reasonable prospect of several chances without pointing to an unusually high total. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side converts its opportunities more efficiently. The main expectation is therefore a narrow home advantage, with a draw also a credible possibility and limited separation between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Mattia Felici set for surgery
Cagliari midfielder Mattia Felici is set to undergo reconstructive surgery after rupturing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
Previous Serie A results
In their previous league fixtures, Atalanta suffered a 2-1 defeat away to Roma, while Cagliari earned a 1-0 win against Lecce courtesy of a Daniel Maldini goal.
Cagliari's strong league start
Cagliari have accumulated 6 points from their opening three matchdays, marking their best start to a Serie A season since 2011/12.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.