Atalanta BC — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.1% |
| 12 | 75.9% | |
| X2 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.60 → now 1.67 |
| W2 | was 5.75 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
Atalanta BC have a slight edge over Cagliari Calcio in this Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a contest with a relatively open range of possible outcomes. The available assessment leans toward the home side, but it does not indicate a decisive gap between the teams. The match is projected to be medium-scoring, suggesting enough attacking involvement for chances at both ends without implying a goal-heavy game.
Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so either side finding the net remains a plausible scenario. The most likely scorelines include a balanced 1:1 draw as well as narrow home victories by 2:0 or 1:0. Overall, Atalanta BC carry the more favorable outlook, but Cagliari Calcio remain capable of keeping the game close. The central expectation is therefore a competitive match in which the home advantage provides only a modest difference.
What matters before kick-off
Mattia Felici set for surgery
Cagliari midfielder Mattia Felici is set to undergo reconstructive surgery after rupturing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
Previous Serie A results
In their previous league fixtures, Atalanta suffered a 2-1 defeat away to Roma, while Cagliari earned a 1-0 win against Lecce courtesy of a Daniel Maldini goal.
Cagliari's strong league start
Cagliari have accumulated 6 points from their opening three matchdays, marking their best start to a Serie A season since 2011/12.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.