US Lecce — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.6% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 66.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
US Lecce
14th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 away Cagliari 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Roma 0:4
- 23.08.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Genoa 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Sassuolo 3:2
AC Monza
18th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Parma 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Udinese 2:3
- 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4
- 08.05.2026 home Empoli 2:2
- 01.05.2026 away Mantova 2:3
This season: US Lecce at home vs AC Monza away
| Metric | US Lecce · at home | AC Monza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.80 | 1.48 |
| xG against per match | 3.26 | 0.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.02.2025 AC Monza 0:0 US Lecce
- 15.12.2024 US Lecce 2:1 AC Monza
- 27.04.2024 US Lecce 1:1 AC Monza
- 17.09.2023 AC Monza 1:1 US Lecce
- 28.05.2023 AC Monza 0:1 US Lecce
- 11.09.2022 US Lecce 1:1 AC Monza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
US Lecce and AC Monza meet in Serie A in a contest that looks evenly matched overall. The available assessment points to a medium-scoring game, although the likelihood of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That suggests a match where neither side is expected to dominate for long, with control potentially changing through the phases.
The most plausible scorelines include a level result, while a narrow AC Monza win is also among the main possibilities. On moderate confidence, the clearest reading is to avoid separating the teams too sharply: a draw or an away victory appears more consistent with the current signal than a home win. US Lecce will aim to make home advantage count, but AC Monza have enough support in the outlook to make them the slightly safer side in the double-chance sense.
What matters before kick-off
US Lecce Unbeaten Against AC Monza in Serie A
US Lecce has never lost to AC Monza in Serie A, recording two wins and four draws in their six top-flight encounters. Both teams found the net in all three of those matches played at Lecce's home ground.
US Lecce Squad Announcement for AC Monza Match
US Lecce head coach Eusebio Di Francesco announced his matchday squad on 12 September 2026 for the Serie A fixture against AC Monza. The selection includes goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone, midfielder Lassana Coulibaly, and forward Nikola Štulić.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.