US Lecce — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.9% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 63.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
US Lecce and AC Monza meet in Serie A in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with neither side holding a clearly defined advantage. The moderate confidence level suggests that the most reasonable expectation is a competitive game shaped by small details rather than a strong pre-match separation.
The scoring outlook is medium, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains uncertain. That leaves several plausible match patterns: a controlled draw such as 1:1, a cautious 0:0, or a narrow 1:0 result. The 1X signal gives US Lecce some protection in the overall reading, but it does not remove the possibility of AC Monza making the game difficult. The likely tactical balance should encourage patience, with the opening goal potentially having a significant influence on how openly the match develops.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A head-to-head record
Lecce are unbeaten against Monza in Serie A, recording two wins and four draws in their top-flight meetings.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.