Genoa CFC — Frosinone Calcio: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Genoa CFC
19th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Como 1:4
- 30.08.2026 away Lazio 0:1
- 22.08.2026 home Napoli 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away Lecce 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Milan 1:2
Frosinone Calcio
7th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Venezia 3:2
- 29.08.2026 away Fiorentina 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Juventus 0:1
- 08.05.2026 home Mantova 5:0
- 01.05.2026 away Juve Stabia 1:0
This season: Genoa CFC at home vs Frosinone Calcio away
| Metric | Genoa CFC · at home | Frosinone Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.73 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 1.28 | 1.90 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 30.03.2024 Genoa CFC 1:1 Frosinone Calcio
- 26.11.2023 Frosinone Calcio 2:1 Genoa CFC
- 13.05.2023 Frosinone Calcio 3:2 Genoa CFC
- 18.12.2022 Genoa CFC 1:0 Frosinone Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Genoa CFC have a slight edge over Frosinone Calcio in this Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the teams. The available assessment points toward a balanced match in which home advantage may prove useful, but not decisive. Genoa CFC should be expected to take a measured approach, while Frosinone Calcio have enough attacking potential to remain involved throughout.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That suggests an open but controlled contest rather than a one-sided performance. A draw remains a realistic possibility, particularly if the teams cancel each other out in midfield and create only a small number of clear chances. Overall, the market signal supports Genoa CFC avoiding defeat, with the narrowest home win or a level scoreline fitting the available indicators.
What matters before kick-off
Elias Havel recovery process
Genoa forward Elias Havel began a recovery program aimed at returning to group training ahead of the matchday four fixture against Frosinone.
Referee appointment
Antonio Rapuano was appointed as the head referee for the Serie A match between Genoa and Frosinone at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Genoa's league campaign start
Genoa enters the matchday four Serie A fixture against Frosinone searching for their first points of the season following three consecutive defeats at the start of the campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.