Genoa CFC — Frosinone Calcio: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.10 → now 2.25 |
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
| W2 | was 3.60 → now 3.20 |
Match preview
Genoa CFC have a slight edge over Frosinone Calcio in this Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the teams. The available assessment points toward a balanced match in which home advantage may prove useful, but not decisive. Genoa CFC should be expected to take a measured approach, while Frosinone Calcio have enough attacking potential to remain involved throughout.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That suggests an open but controlled contest rather than a one-sided performance. A draw remains a realistic possibility, particularly if the teams cancel each other out in midfield and create only a small number of clear chances. Overall, the market signal supports Genoa CFC avoiding defeat, with the narrowest home win or a level scoreline fitting the available indicators.
What matters before kick-off
Elias Havel recovery process
Genoa forward Elias Havel began a recovery program aimed at returning to group training ahead of the matchday four fixture against Frosinone.
Referee appointment
Antonio Rapuano was appointed as the head referee for the Serie A match between Genoa and Frosinone at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Genoa's league campaign start
Genoa enters the matchday four Serie A fixture against Frosinone searching for their first points of the season following three consecutive defeats at the start of the campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.