SSC Napoli — Bologna FC: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.0% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
SSC Napoli
12th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Udinese 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Pisa 3:0
Bologna FC
16th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:2
- 31.08.2026 away Atalanta 0:1
- 24.08.2026 home Lazio 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Inter 3:3
- 17.05.2026 away Atalanta 1:0
This season: SSC Napoli at home vs Bologna FC away
| Metric | SSC Napoli · at home | Bologna FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| xG against per match | 1.03 | 0.16 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.05.2026 SSC Napoli 2:3 Bologna FC
- 09.11.2025 Bologna FC 2:0 SSC Napoli
- 07.04.2025 Bologna FC 1:1 SSC Napoli
- 25.08.2024 SSC Napoli 3:0 Bologna FC
- 11.05.2024 SSC Napoli 0:2 Bologna FC
- 24.09.2023 Bologna FC 0:0 SSC Napoli
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SSC Napoli face Bologna FC in Serie A on 13 September 2026, with the home side holding a slight but credible edge. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, suggesting a contest where neither team is expected to dominate for long periods. Home advantage gives SSC Napoli the stronger position, but the margin between the sides appears narrow enough to keep the result open.
Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so the match could develop in different ways depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. A controlled SSC Napoli performance could lead to a narrow home win, while Bologna FC have enough room in the outlook to make the game competitive. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0, reflecting a balance between a draw and a limited home victory rather than a wide-margin result.
What matters before kick-off
Napoli's recent results
Napoli enter the match following three consecutive defeats in all competitions, suffering losses against Como and Inter in Serie A as well as Arsenal in the Champions League.
Napoli team news
Napoli will be without injured midfielders Scott McTominay and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa for the match against Bologna.
Bologna head coach suspension
Bologna head coach Domenico Tedesco serves a two-match touchline suspension and will watch the game from the stands.
Massimiliano Allegri's record against Bologna
Napoli head coach Massimiliano Allegri has faced Bologna 26 times in his managerial career without ever suffering a defeat, registering 19 wins and 7 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.