SSC Napoli — Bologna FC: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.3% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.75 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
SSC Napoli face Bologna FC in Serie A on 13 September 2026, with the home side holding a slight edge in the pre-match assessment. The signal points toward SSC Napoli avoiding defeat, although the balance is not one-sided enough to remove the possibility of a draw. The fixture therefore looks more competitive than a straightforward home win.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, with neither an open attacking contest nor a particularly defensive match indicated. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so that aspect offers no clear separation between the sides. SSC Napoli have the stronger overall position, but Bologna FC remain capable of keeping the game close, making a narrow home success or a level result the most consistent scenarios with the available data.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.