Como 1907 — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 86.1% | |
| X2 | 19.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Como 1907
6th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Genoa 4:1
- 30.08.2026 away Napoli 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Udinese 1:1
- 24.05.2026 away Cremonese 4:1
- 17.05.2026 home Parma 1:0
Parma Calcio
17th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Monza 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Sassuolo 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Como 0:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Como 1907 1:0 Parma Calcio
- 25.10.2025 Parma Calcio 0:0 Como 1907
- 03.05.2025 Parma Calcio 0:1 Como 1907
- 19.10.2024 Como 1907 1:1 Parma Calcio
- 24.02.2024 Como 1907 1:1 Parma Calcio
- 20.10.2023 Parma Calcio 2:1 Como 1907
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Como 1907 approach this Serie A meeting with a clear analytical advantage over Parma Calcio. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence, suggesting that Como 1907 should control the match more effectively and create the better opportunities. Parma Calcio will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to limit the home side’s influence.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open exchange of chances, while a clean sheet is considered likely. That combination points toward a match in which Como 1907’s superiority may be reflected through controlled possession, territorial pressure, and a more efficient attacking performance, without necessarily producing a high total of goals. The projected scorelines of 2:0, 3:0, and 1:0 all indicate the same broader pattern: a home victory with Parma Calcio potentially struggling to find a response. The key question is whether the visitors can withstand the pressure long enough to keep the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Como's Champions League success
Cesc Fàbregas' Como 1907 enter the Serie A fixture against Parma following a 4-1 home victory over RB Leipzig in their UEFA Champions League debut.
Team news and absences
Jayden Addai remains the sole absentee for Como, while Parma midfielder Hans Nicolussi Caviglia is ruled out following surgery.
Como's first home league game
The encounter with Parma marks Como 1907's first home fixture in Serie A this season after playing their opening three league matches on the road.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
