Match intelligence

Como 1907 — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Como 19072
:
1Parma Calcio
Locked signal W1 Probability 80.2% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 80.2% Home win Como 1907
X 13.9% Draw
W2 5.9% Away win Parma Calcio
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X94.1%
Both teams to score
No56.1%
Totals 2.5
Over64.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X94.1%
1286.1%
X219.8%
Both teams to scoreYes/No43.9% / 56.1%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 95.9% / 4.1%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 84.6% / 15.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 64.1% / 35.9%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 42.0% / 58.0%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 23.8% / 76.2%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 11.7% / 88.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Como 1907 × Parma Calcio
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.1%
0:1 1.9%
0:2 0.7%
0:3 0.2%
0:4 0.0%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 9.4%
1:1 6.6%
1:2 1.9%
1:3 0.4%
1:4 0.1%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 13.1%
2:1 8.3%
2:2 2.6%
2:3 0.5%
2:4 0.1%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 11.7%
3:1 7.4%
3:2 2.3%
3:3 0.5%
3:4 0.1%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 7.8%
4:1 4.9%
4:2 1.5%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 4.2%
5:1 2.6%
5:2 0.8%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:013.2%
3:011.7%
1:09.4%
2:18.3%
4:07.8%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026

Como 1907

6th place · 7 pts after 3

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 04.09.2026 away Genoa 4:1
  • 30.08.2026 away Napoli 2:1
  • 22.08.2026 away Udinese 1:1
  • 24.05.2026 away Cremonese 4:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Parma 1:0

Parma Calcio

17th place · 1 pts after 3

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 06.09.2026 home Monza 1:1
  • 29.08.2026 away Juventus 0:2
  • 22.08.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
  • 24.05.2026 home Sassuolo 1:0
  • 17.05.2026 away Como 0:1

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Como 1907 wins2
Draws3
Parma Calcio wins1
Goals per match1.50
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
  • 17.05.2026 Como 1907 1:0 Parma Calcio
  • 25.10.2025 Parma Calcio 0:0 Como 1907
  • 03.05.2025 Parma Calcio 0:1 Como 1907
  • 19.10.2024 Como 1907 1:1 Parma Calcio
  • 24.02.2024 Como 1907 1:1 Parma Calcio
  • 20.10.2023 Parma Calcio 2:1 Como 1907

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Como 1907 approach this Serie A meeting with a clear analytical advantage over Parma Calcio. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence, suggesting that Como 1907 should control the match more effectively and create the better opportunities. Parma Calcio will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to limit the home side’s influence.

The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open exchange of chances, while a clean sheet is considered likely. That combination points toward a match in which Como 1907’s superiority may be reflected through controlled possession, territorial pressure, and a more efficient attacking performance, without necessarily producing a high total of goals. The projected scorelines of 2:0, 3:0, and 1:0 all indicate the same broader pattern: a home victory with Parma Calcio potentially struggling to find a response. The key question is whether the visitors can withstand the pressure long enough to keep the contest close.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Como's Champions League success

Cesc Fàbregas' Como 1907 enter the Serie A fixture against Parma following a 4-1 home victory over RB Leipzig in their UEFA Champions League debut.

Availability

Team news and absences

Jayden Addai remains the sole absentee for Como, while Parma midfielder Hans Nicolussi Caviglia is ruled out following surgery.

Match fact

Como's first home league game

The encounter with Parma marks Como 1907's first home fixture in Serie A this season after playing their opening three league matches on the road.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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