Como 1907 — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.9% |
| 12 | 85.4% | |
| X2 | 19.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.3% / 17.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 5.50 → now 5.75 |
Match preview
Como 1907 approach this Serie A meeting with a clear analytical advantage over Parma Calcio. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence, suggesting that Como 1907 should control the match more effectively and create the better opportunities. Parma Calcio will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to limit the home side’s influence.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open exchange of chances, while a clean sheet is considered likely. That combination points toward a match in which Como 1907’s superiority may be reflected through controlled possession, territorial pressure, and a more efficient attacking performance, without necessarily producing a high total of goals. The projected scorelines of 2:0, 3:0, and 1:0 all indicate the same broader pattern: a home victory with Parma Calcio potentially struggling to find a response. The key question is whether the visitors can withstand the pressure long enough to keep the contest close.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.