Inter Milano — Udinese Calcio: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.9% |
| 12 | 86.5% | |
| X2 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Inter Milano
3rd place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Napoli 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cagliari 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
- 23.05.2026 away Bologna 3:3
- 17.05.2026 home Verona 1:1
Udinese Calcio
13th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 home Lazio 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Monza 3:2
- 22.08.2026 home Como 1:1
- 24.05.2026 away Napoli 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Cremonese 0:1
This season: Inter Milano at home vs Udinese Calcio away
| Metric | Inter Milano · at home | Udinese Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.46 | 0.89 |
| xG against per match | 1.84 | 1.65 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.01.2026 Udinese Calcio 0:1 Inter Milano
- 31.08.2025 Inter Milano 1:2 Udinese Calcio
- 30.03.2025 Inter Milano 2:1 Udinese Calcio
- 28.09.2024 Udinese Calcio 2:3 Inter Milano
- 08.04.2024 Udinese Calcio 1:2 Inter Milano
- 09.12.2023 Inter Milano 4:0 Udinese Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Milano enter this Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. Udinese Calcio face a difficult task against a home team whose projected advantage is substantial, while the available signal points toward a home win. The balance of the preview therefore rests more on how Inter Milano impose that superiority than on an evenly matched contest.
The scoring outlook is also high, with 2:0, 3:0 and 4:0 among the likeliest scorelines. That suggests Inter Milano could create enough attacking pressure to produce multiple goals, although the question of whether both teams score remains finely balanced. Udinese Calcio may still have opportunities, but the stronger overall projection is for the hosts to control the match and keep the visitors under sustained pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Udinese team news ahead of Inter clash
Udinese head coach Kosta Runjaic confirmed that Alessandro Zanoli and Nicolo Zaniolo will miss the match in Milan through injury. However, Giorgi Chakvetadze has trained regularly with the squad and is ready to feature.
Inter squad status ahead of home fixture
Inter defender Djed Spence remains out as he works to regain match fitness, while Federico Dimarco has recovered from a mild knee issue and is back in the squad.
Inter's midweek Champions League outing
Prior to Matchday 4 of Serie A, Inter travelled to Spain on Tuesday where they suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat against Real Madrid in the Champions League.
Head-to-head record in recent seasons
Inter have won eight of their last 10 encounters against Udinese, though Udinese claimed a victory away at San Siro in the corresponding fixture last season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.