Inter Milano — Udinese Calcio: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.7% |
| 12 | 84.9% | |
| X2 | 21.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 12.00 → now 13.00 |
Match preview
Inter Milano go into this Serie A meeting as the clearly stronger side, with a high-confidence assessment favoring the hosts. The overall scoring outlook is also high, suggesting a match in which Inter Milano should be able to create sustained attacking pressure and generate several opportunities. Udinese Calcio, however, remain capable of contributing to an open contest, as the assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced rather than decisively one-sided.
The most plausible scorelines point toward a controlled home victory, with 2-0 and 3-0 among the leading possibilities, while 2-1 also reflects the possibility of Udinese Calcio finding a response. That range indicates a match where Inter Milano are expected to have the stronger structure and greater attacking influence, but where the final margin may depend on how efficiently they convert their chances. The scheduled kickoff is 14 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.