Venezia FC — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.8% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Venezia FC
18th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Frosinone 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Milan 0:2
- 23.08.2026 home Lecce 0:2
- 08.05.2026 home Palermo 2:0
- 01.05.2026 away Spezia 2:2
ACF Fiorentina
20th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Torino 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Frosinone 0:3
- 24.08.2026 away Roma 0:4
- 22.05.2026 home Atalanta 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Juventus 2:0
This season: Venezia FC at home vs ACF Fiorentina away
| Metric | Venezia FC · at home | ACF Fiorentina · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.05 | 0.28 |
| xG against per match | 2.70 | 2.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 12.05.2025 Venezia FC 2:1 ACF Fiorentina
- 25.08.2024 ACF Fiorentina 0:0 Venezia FC
- 16.04.2022 ACF Fiorentina 1:0 Venezia FC
- 18.10.2021 Venezia FC 1:0 ACF Fiorentina
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Venezia FC and ACF Fiorentina look evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting on 11 September 2026. The available assessment gives the visitors a slight edge in the result market, but the confidence is moderate rather than decisive, leaving several plausible outcomes.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with both Venezia FC and ACF Fiorentina likely to find the net. A 1:1 draw is among the leading possibilities, while a narrow win for either side also fits the overall picture. The balance between the teams suggests a competitive contest in which small moments may have a significant influence.
What matters before kick-off
Paolo Vanoli appointed Fiorentina head coach
ACF Fiorentina dismissed Fabio Grosso following three consecutive league defeats and appointed Paolo Vanoli as their new head coach.
Both teams seeking first points
Both Venezia FC and ACF Fiorentina enter Matchday 4 of Serie A having lost all three of their opening league fixtures.
Paolo Vanoli faces former club
Newly appointed Fiorentina head coach Paolo Vanoli previously managed Venezia FC from October 2022 to June 2024, leading them to Serie A promotion.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.