Venezia FC — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.8% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.88 → now 2.63 |
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
| W2 | was 2.50 → now 2.63 |
Match preview
Venezia FC and ACF Fiorentina look evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting on 11 September 2026. The available assessment gives the visitors a slight edge in the result market, but the confidence is moderate rather than decisive, leaving several plausible outcomes.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with both Venezia FC and ACF Fiorentina likely to find the net. A 1:1 draw is among the leading possibilities, while a narrow win for either side also fits the overall picture. The balance between the teams suggests a competitive contest in which small moments may have a significant influence.
What matters before kick-off
Paolo Vanoli appointed Fiorentina head coach
ACF Fiorentina dismissed Fabio Grosso following three consecutive league defeats and appointed Paolo Vanoli as their new head coach.
Both teams seeking first points
Both Venezia FC and ACF Fiorentina enter Matchday 4 of Serie A having lost all three of their opening league fixtures.
Paolo Vanoli faces former club
Newly appointed Fiorentina head coach Paolo Vanoli previously managed Venezia FC from October 2022 to June 2024, leading them to Serie A promotion.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.