Tobol Kostanay — FK Partizan Belgrade: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.0% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 67.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Tobol Kostanay and FK Partizan Belgrade meet in the UEFA Conference League qualification with the teams appearing evenly matched. The moderate confidence level points to a contest where neither side has a clearly established advantage, although the overall signal gives some support to FK Partizan Belgrade avoiding defeat. The balance of the matchup makes the draw a meaningful possibility.
The game is expected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points toward an open enough encounter for each attack to create opportunities, while still leaving room for a cautious approach in key phases. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1, reflecting the narrow margins between the sides rather than a clear expectation of dominance.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
FK Partizan Belgrade secured a 3-0 victory over Tobol Kostanay in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round on August 6, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.