Qarabag FK — FC Dynamo Kyiv: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.7% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Qarabag FK have a slight edge over FC Dynamo Kyiv in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie. The assessment gives the hosts the stronger overall position, although the gap is not wide enough to suggest a one-sided contest. FC Dynamo Kyiv should remain competitive, and the balance of the matchup leaves room for the visitors to influence the result.
A medium-scoring game appears the most likely pattern. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the match could develop through a cautious opening before becoming more open later. The main projected outcomes are a 1:1 draw, a narrow 2:1 win for Qarabag FK, or a 1:0 home victory. Taken together, the analysis supports a result that protects Qarabag FK from defeat while recognising that a draw remains a realistic possibility.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round, Dynamo Kyiv defeated Qarabag FK 1-0 thanks to an early goal from Matvii Ponomarenko.
Makreckis suspended
Qarabag midfielder Čebrails Makreckis is suspended for the second leg against Dynamo Kyiv following his late red card in the first leg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.