FC RFS — FK Jablonec: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.8% |
| 12 | 71.8% | |
| X2 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.0% / 75.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC RFS have a slight but credible edge over FK Jablonec in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with the home side better placed overall but not dominant enough to make the contest one-sided. FC RFS should look to use their home advantage to control the tempo and create the clearer opportunities, while FK Jablonec remain capable of keeping the game balanced.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, which supports a cautious reading of the matchup. A 1:1 draw is among the most plausible outcomes, alongside narrow FC RFS victories such as 1:0 or 2:1. Overall, the hosts appear clearly better positioned to avoid defeat, although FK Jablonec have enough competitive strength to make this a close qualification encounter. The key question is whether FC RFS can turn their territorial and situational advantage into a decisive margin, rather than allowing the visitors to remain level deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
First Leg Result
On August 6, 2026, FK Jablonec secured a 2-0 home victory over FC RFS in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round, with goals from Vakho and Matěj Polidar.
Decisive Domestic Win for RFS
Ahead of the Conference League second leg, FC RFS picked up momentum in the Latvian Virslīga by defeating Grobiņa 6-1 on August 10, 2026.
Potential Domestic Postponement for Jablonec
The Czech League Football Association agreed to postpone FK Jablonec's domestic league fixture against Bohemians 1905 to September 2 if Jablonec eliminates FC RFS.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.