Tampereen Ilves — HNK Rijeka: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.1% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 76.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Tampereen Ilves face HNK Rijeka in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall assessment points toward HNK Rijeka avoiding defeat, but the gap between the teams is not large enough to make the home side’s chances irrelevant. Tampereen Ilves should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match balanced and limit the visitors’ control.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring rather than an open attacking contest. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, so that aspect of the game remains finely balanced. A controlled draw is a plausible scenario, while HNK Rijeka’s greater likelihood of winning makes a narrow away success another reasonable outcome. Tampereen Ilves will need defensive discipline and efficient use of their opportunities, whereas HNK Rijeka may look to manage the tie patiently and exploit small openings.
What matters before kick-off
First Leg Result
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round on August 6, 2026, HNK Rijeka defeated Tampereen Ilves 1-0 in Croatia thanks to a 16th-minute goal from Niko Janković.
Goalkeeper Standout Performance
Tampereen Ilves goalkeeper Faris Krkalić made 11 saves in the first leg to keep his team within a single goal against HNK Rijeka.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.