Tobol Kostanay — FK Panevezys: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.5% |
| 12 | 83.2% | |
| X2 | 23.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
| X2 | was 9.50 → now 10.00 |
Match preview
Tobol Kostanay approach this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear advantage over FK Panevezys. The available assessment makes the hosts clearly stronger, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. That points to Tobol controlling more of the match, particularly through territorial pressure and a greater ability to create the better chances. FK Panevezys will need to remain organised and limit the space available to the hosts if they are to keep the contest balanced.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than open or chaotic. A clean sheet for Tobol Kostanay is considered likely, which makes FK Panevezys’ attacking efficiency an important factor in the visitors’ prospects. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 1:0 and 3:0, all reflecting the same general pattern: a home win with Tobol holding FK Panevezys at arm’s length. The central expectation is therefore a controlled performance from the hosts rather than a high-scoring exchange.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.