Tobol Kostanay — FK Panevezys: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.9% |
| 12 | 81.5% | |
| X2 | 26.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Tobol Kostanay approach this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear advantage over FK Panevezys. The available assessment makes the hosts clearly stronger, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. That points to Tobol controlling more of the match, particularly through territorial pressure and a greater ability to create the better chances. FK Panevezys will need to remain organised and limit the space available to the hosts if they are to keep the contest balanced.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than open or chaotic. A clean sheet for Tobol Kostanay is considered likely, which makes FK Panevezys’ attacking efficiency an important factor in the visitors’ prospects. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 1:0 and 3:0, all reflecting the same general pattern: a home win with Tobol holding FK Panevezys at arm’s length. The central expectation is therefore a controlled performance from the hosts rather than a high-scoring exchange.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
The first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round between FK Panevezys and Tobol Kostanay on July 23, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.