Atletic Club d'Escaldes — FC Vaduz: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.2% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 82.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.7% / 47.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.5% / 69.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.20 → now 4.00 |
Match preview
Atletic Club d'Escaldes face FC Vaduz in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie where the available assessment gives the visitors a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage. The confidence level is moderate, so the balance of the matchup points toward FC Vaduz without removing uncertainty from the contest. Atletic Club d'Escaldes will need to stay competitive across the match, while Vaduz appear better placed to control the overall outcome.
The scoring outlook is high, suggesting an open game with opportunities at both ends rather than a tightly contained encounter. The expectation that both teams will score remains evenly balanced, so it is difficult to identify a firm pattern in that market. The leading scoreline indications favour a narrow FC Vaduz victory, with a draw also remaining a credible alternative. Overall, FC Vaduz hold the stronger position, but Atletic Club d'Escaldes retain a realistic route to make the tie competitive.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.