Swansea City — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.7% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Swansea City
1st place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 home Watford 2:0
- 29.08.2026 away Derby 3:0
- 22.08.2026 home Sheffield United 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Stoke 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Charlton 3:1
Wrexham AFC
12th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 away Millwall 3:0
- 28.08.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Watford 1:1
- 17.08.2026 away Cardiff 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
This season: Swansea City at home vs Wrexham AFC away
| Metric | Swansea City · at home | Wrexham AFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.65 | 1.22 |
| xG against per match | 1.17 | 0.57 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 13.03.2026 Wrexham AFC 2:0 Swansea City
- 19.12.2025 Swansea City 2:1 Wrexham AFC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Swansea City and Wrexham AFC appear evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be shaped by small details, particularly how each team manages possession, defensive transitions and pressure in key areas.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is a credible outcome, while Swansea City have a slight edge through the broader 1X signal, meaning the home side is favoured to avoid defeat rather than to secure a clearly expected win. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1 is the central scenario, with 2:1 and 0:0 also consistent with a closely contested match.
What matters before kick-off
Swansea City team news
Swansea City head coach Vítor Matos confirmed Ben Cabango has returned to full training, while Ross Stewart, Cameron Burgess, and Gonçalo Franco remain sidelined. Deadline day signing Jeremy Monga is cleared to make his debut.
Swansea City moving to top of the Championship
Swansea City host Wrexham after moving to the top of the EFL Championship table following a 2-0 midweek home victory over Watford, keeping their undefeated start to the league campaign intact.
Wrexham securing first league victory
Wrexham head to South Wales following their first league win of the Championship season, having secured a 3-0 midweek away victory against Millwall at The Den.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.