Swansea City — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.7% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Swansea City and Wrexham AFC appear evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be shaped by small details, particularly how each team manages possession, defensive transitions and pressure in key areas.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is a credible outcome, while Swansea City have a slight edge through the broader 1X signal, meaning the home side is favoured to avoid defeat rather than to secure a clearly expected win. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1 is the central scenario, with 2:1 and 0:0 also consistent with a closely contested match.
What matters before kick-off
Swansea City team news
Swansea City head coach Vítor Matos confirmed Ben Cabango has returned to full training, while Ross Stewart, Cameron Burgess, and Gonçalo Franco remain sidelined. Deadline day signing Jeremy Monga is cleared to make his debut.
Swansea City moving to top of the Championship
Swansea City host Wrexham after moving to the top of the EFL Championship table following a 2-0 midweek home victory over Watford, keeping their undefeated start to the league campaign intact.
Wrexham securing first league victory
Wrexham head to South Wales following their first league win of the Championship season, having secured a 3-0 midweek away victory against Millwall at The Den.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.