Swansea City — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 01.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.6% / 23.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.09.2026
Swansea City
3rd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Derby 3:0
- 22.08.2026 home Sheffield United 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Stoke 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Charlton 3:1
- 25.04.2026 away Norwich 1:1
Watford FC
10th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home West Ham 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 16.08.2026 home Southampton 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Coventry 0:4
- 25.04.2026 away Middlesbrough 1:5
This season: Swansea City at home vs Watford FC away
| Metric | Swansea City · at home | Watford FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| xG against per match | 1.46 | 1.92 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Watford FC 0:2 Swansea City
- 23.08.2025 Swansea City 1:1 Watford FC
- 12.03.2025 Watford FC 1:0 Swansea City
- 05.11.2024 Swansea City 1:0 Watford FC
- 06.03.2024 Watford FC 1:1 Swansea City
- 24.10.2023 Swansea City 0:1 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Swansea City have a slight edge over Watford FC in this Championship meeting, although the balance is not heavily tilted. The available assessment points towards the hosts being the stronger side on this occasion, with the 1X signal also favouring Swansea City in terms of avoiding defeat. That advantage should still be treated as narrow rather than decisive, particularly against a Watford FC side capable of keeping the contest competitive.
The match is projected to produce a medium level of scoring. Both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, so the game could develop into a measured exchange rather than an open contest from the outset. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1, reflecting the limited separation between the teams and the possibility of a close finish. Swansea City may have the better platform, but Watford FC remain capable of taking advantage if the hosts fail to convert their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form
Swansea City entered the fixture against Watford following a 3-0 victory over Derby County, taking seven points from their opening three Championship games.
Swansea City team news
Stephen Eustaquio made his full Swansea City debut against Watford, coming into the midfield in place of Jay Fulton.
Schedule congestion
The home match against Watford started a busy period for Swansea City featuring four fixtures in the span of 12 days.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.