Portsmouth FC — Derby County: Win probabilities, 01.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.6% / 94.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portsmouth FC meet Derby County in the Championship with a narrow advantage on the home side. The overall assessment gives Portsmouth FC a clear but limited edge, suggesting that home conditions may be important in a contest where the difference between the teams is not expected to be substantial. Derby County remain competitive in the underlying outlook, so the match should be approached as a potentially close encounter rather than a one-sided fixture.
The scoring picture points towards a medium-scoring game. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, meaning there is no strong indication that either a clean sheet or goals at both ends should be expected. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0, reflecting the slight preference for Portsmouth FC while leaving room for Derby County to take a point. Overall, the assessment favours Portsmouth FC avoiding defeat, with a draw remaining a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Team news for Portsmouth and Derby County
Portsmouth are without Keshi Anderson, Mark Kosznovszky, Josh Murphy, Connor Ogilvie, Franco Umeh, and Thomas Waddingham due to injury. Derby County are missing Matt Clarke, Patrick Agyemang, Carlton Morris, and Derry Murkin through injury.
Portsmouth goalkeeper Bursik joins Wimbledon on loan
Portsmouth goalkeeper Josef Bursik has joined League One side AFC Wimbledon on loan for the remainder of the 2026/27 season.
Portsmouth legend Alan Knight passes away aged 65
Former Portsmouth goalkeeper Alan Knight, who made 801 appearances for the club, has died at the age of 65.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.