Portsmouth FC — Derby County: Win probabilities, 01.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.6% / 94.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.09.2026
Portsmouth FC
17th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Bristol City 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Lincoln 3:1
- 15.08.2026 home QPR 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Birmingham 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Stoke 3:1
Derby County
21st place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Swansea 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Cardiff 2:2
- 15.08.2026 away Charlton 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Sheffield United 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away QPR 3:2
This season: Portsmouth FC at home vs Derby County away
| Metric | Portsmouth FC · at home | Derby County · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.18 | 1.00 |
| xG against per match | 2.07 | 0.97 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.03.2026 Portsmouth FC 0:1 Derby County
- 20.12.2025 Derby County 1:1 Portsmouth FC
- 12.04.2025 Portsmouth FC 2:2 Derby County
- 13.12.2024 Derby County 4:0 Portsmouth FC
- 02.04.2024 Portsmouth FC 2:2 Derby County
- 16.09.2023 Derby County 1:1 Portsmouth FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Portsmouth FC meet Derby County in the Championship with a narrow advantage on the home side. The overall assessment gives Portsmouth FC a clear but limited edge, suggesting that home conditions may be important in a contest where the difference between the teams is not expected to be substantial. Derby County remain competitive in the underlying outlook, so the match should be approached as a potentially close encounter rather than a one-sided fixture.
The scoring picture points towards a medium-scoring game. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, meaning there is no strong indication that either a clean sheet or goals at both ends should be expected. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0, reflecting the slight preference for Portsmouth FC while leaving room for Derby County to take a point. Overall, the assessment favours Portsmouth FC avoiding defeat, with a draw remaining a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Team news for Portsmouth and Derby County
Portsmouth are without Keshi Anderson, Mark Kosznovszky, Josh Murphy, Connor Ogilvie, Franco Umeh, and Thomas Waddingham due to injury. Derby County are missing Matt Clarke, Patrick Agyemang, Carlton Morris, and Derry Murkin through injury.
Portsmouth goalkeeper Bursik joins Wimbledon on loan
Portsmouth goalkeeper Josef Bursik has joined League One side AFC Wimbledon on loan for the remainder of the 2026/27 season.
Portsmouth legend Alan Knight passes away aged 65
Former Portsmouth goalkeeper Alan Knight, who made 801 appearances for the club, has died at the age of 65.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.