Preston North End — Bristol City: Win probabilities, 01.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.7% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 67.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Preston North End and Bristol City look evenly matched ahead of their Championship meeting, with only moderate confidence in the overall assessment. Neither side has a clearly established advantage in the available information, so the contest may be shaped by small differences in efficiency and decision-making rather than a major gap in quality. The available signal leans toward Bristol City avoiding defeat, but that remains a tendency rather than a definitive prediction.
The match is assessed as potentially medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. A 1:1 draw is one plausible scenario, while 1:2 and 0:1 also reflect the slight preference toward Bristol City in the broader outlook. Preston North End should still have a realistic route into the game, particularly if they can turn home advantage into sustained pressure, but Bristol City may be capable of keeping the contest close and taking something from it.
What matters before kick-off
Bristol City injury update
Michael Skubala confirmed that Bristol City came through their 2-1 victory over Portsmouth without fresh injury concerns, leaving Luke McNally as their only main injury absence heading into the match at Deepdale.
Preston North End form
Preston North End head into the match searching for their first points of the Championship season after opening the campaign with three consecutive league defeats.
Bristol City recent result
Bristol City secured their first win of the campaign last time out by defeating Portsmouth 2-1 at Ashton Gate thanks to goals from Lorent Tolaj and Jason Knight.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.