Sheffield United — Bolton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 01.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.5% |
| 12 | 77.2% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.9% / 19.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sheffield United come into this Championship meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Bolton Wanderers. The available assessment points towards the home side as the stronger team, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Sheffield United’s home setting supports their position, while Bolton Wanderers remain capable of making the contest competitive if they manage the match effectively.
The game is projected to fall into a medium-scoring range, rather than being expected to develop into either a particularly open shootout or a tightly uneventful encounter. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, with the assessment treating that outcome as finely balanced. Sheffield United therefore appear better placed, but the match still carries enough uncertainty for Bolton Wanderers to stay involved, especially if they can contain the hosts early and create pressure of their own.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
Sheffield United opened their Championship campaign with three consecutive draws, including a 2-2 result against Cardiff City. Bolton Wanderers suffered their first league defeat of the season in their last outing, falling 1-0 to Lincoln City.
Squad availability news
Sheffield United are expected to be without Tahith Chong and Ryan Oné due to muscle issues. Bolton Wanderers are missing forward Ruben Rodrigues, who is sidelined with a knee injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.