Sunderland — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
34.5%
Home win
Sunderland
X
28.9%
Draw
W2
36.6%
Away win
Leeds United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.1%
Both teams to score
Yes51.8%
Totals 2.5
Under54.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Goal distribution model
Sunderland × Leeds United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
9.2%
0:1
9.5%
0:2
6.6%
0:3
2.8%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
9.2%
1:1
13.8%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
3.4%
1:4
1.1%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
7.9%
2:2
5.0%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.5%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
2.0%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.8%
0:19.5%
0:09.2%
1:09.2%
1:28.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Sunderland
14th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Man City 3:5
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
- 05.09.2026 away Brentford 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
Leeds United
5th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Brighton 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
This season: Sunderland at home vs Leeds United away
| Metric | Sunderland · at home | Leeds United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.91 | 1.49 |
| xG against per match | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Sunderland wins2
Draws3
Leeds United wins1
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 03.03.2026 Leeds United 0:1 Sunderland
- 28.12.2025 Sunderland 1:1 Leeds United
- 17.02.2025 Leeds United 2:1 Sunderland
- 04.10.2024 Sunderland 2:2 Leeds United
- 09.04.2024 Leeds United 0:0 Sunderland
- 12.12.2023 Sunderland 1:0 Leeds United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.38 → now 3.25 |
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