Manchester United — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
53.7%
Home win
Manchester United
X
22.5%
Draw
W2
23.7%
Away win
Bournemouth
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1277.5%
Both teams to score
Yes64.1%
Totals 2.5
Over65.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.3% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.1% / 34.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Goal distribution model
Manchester United × Bournemouth
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.1%
0:1
4.0%
0:2
3.0%
0:3
1.3%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.6%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
6.1%
1:3
2.7%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.0%
3:1
6.5%
3:2
4.3%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.5%
4:1
3.3%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
2:19.6%
2:07.3%
1:06.6%
3:16.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Manchester United
12th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away Everton 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
Bournemouth
17th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
This season: Manchester United at home vs Bournemouth away
| Metric | Manchester United · at home | Bournemouth · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.78 | 1.00 |
| xG against per match | 1.56 | 1.54 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Manchester United wins0
Draws4
Bournemouth wins2
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 20.03.2026 Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester United
- 15.12.2025 Manchester United 4:4 Bournemouth
- 27.04.2025 Bournemouth 1:1 Manchester United
- 22.12.2024 Manchester United 0:3 Bournemouth
- 13.04.2024 Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester United
- 09.12.2023 Manchester United 0:3 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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