Crystal Palace — Newcastle United: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
36.4%
Home win
Crystal Palace
X
26.5%
Draw
W2
37.1%
Away win
Newcastle United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.5%
Both teams to score
Yes61.4%
Totals 2.5
Over57.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.9% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 63.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.4% / 81.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
Goal distribution model
Crystal Palace × Newcastle United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
6.4%
0:2
5.7%
0:3
2.8%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
6.4%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
8.4%
1:3
4.2%
1:4
1.6%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.5%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
3.2%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.0%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
1:28.4%
2:18.4%
0:16.4%
1:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Crystal Palace
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Leeds 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
Newcastle United
9th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Hull 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Leeds 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Bournemouth 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Tottenham 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home Liverpool 2:2
This season: Crystal Palace at home vs Newcastle United away
| Metric | Crystal Palace · at home | Newcastle United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.95 | 1.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Crystal Palace wins2
Draws1
Newcastle United wins3
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 12.04.2026 Crystal Palace 2:1 Newcastle United
- 04.01.2026 Newcastle United 2:0 Crystal Palace
- 16.04.2025 Newcastle United 5:0 Crystal Palace
- 30.11.2024 Crystal Palace 1:1 Newcastle United
- 24.04.2024 Crystal Palace 2:0 Newcastle United
- 21.10.2023 Newcastle United 4:0 Crystal Palace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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