Liverpool — Brighton and Hove Albion: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.7%
Home win
Liverpool
X
23.6%
Draw
W2
27.7%
Away win
Brighton and Hove Albion
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.4%
Both teams to score
Yes62.2%
Totals 2.5
Over61.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.9% / 61.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Goal distribution model
Liverpool × Brighton and Hove Albion
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
5.3%
0:2
3.8%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.4%
1:1
10.7%
1:2
6.9%
1:3
3.1%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
7.1%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.3%
3:1
5.7%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.0%
4:1
2.6%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
2:19.4%
1:07.4%
2:07.1%
1:26.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Liverpool
6th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Bournemouth 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
- 04.09.2026 away Ipswich 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
Brighton and Hove Albion
3rd place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Arsenal 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Coventry 5:0
- 05.09.2026 home Leeds 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Chelsea 3:4
- 23.08.2026 home Aston Villa 4:0
This season: Liverpool at home vs Brighton and Hove Albion away
| Metric | Liverpool · at home | Brighton and Hove Albion · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.52 | 2.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.49 | 2.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Liverpool wins3
Draws1
Brighton and Hove Albion wins2
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 21.03.2026 Brighton and Hove Albion 2:1 Liverpool
- 13.12.2025 Liverpool 2:0 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 19.05.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 3:2 Liverpool
- 02.11.2024 Liverpool 2:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 31.03.2024 Liverpool 2:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 08.10.2023 Brighton and Hove Albion 2:2 Liverpool
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.70 → now 3.90 |
| W2 | was 3.22 → now 3.35 |
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