Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
52.3%
Home win
Chelsea
X
23.2%
Draw
W2
24.5%
Away win
Tottenham Hotspur
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.8%
Both teams to score
Yes61.1%
Totals 2.5
Over60.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.6% / 61.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.0% / 79.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Goal distribution model
Chelsea × Tottenham Hotspur
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.7%
0:1
4.9%
0:2
3.3%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.7%
1:1
10.6%
1:2
6.3%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.8%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
6.0%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.9%
3:1
6.1%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.3%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.6%
2:19.7%
2:07.8%
1:07.7%
1:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Chelsea
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 12.09.2026 home Hull 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Brighton 4:3
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
Tottenham Hotspur
20th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Aston Villa 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Everton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 away Nott'm Forest 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Newcastle 0:2
- 22.08.2026 away Brentford 0:3
This season: Chelsea at home vs Tottenham Hotspur away
| Metric | Chelsea · at home | Tottenham Hotspur · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.92 | 0.82 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 2.40 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Chelsea wins6
Draws0
Tottenham Hotspur wins0
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 19.05.2026 Chelsea 2:1 Tottenham Hotspur
- 01.11.2025 Tottenham Hotspur 0:1 Chelsea
- 03.04.2025 Chelsea 1:0 Tottenham Hotspur
- 08.12.2024 Tottenham Hotspur 3:4 Chelsea
- 02.05.2024 Chelsea 2:0 Tottenham Hotspur
- 06.11.2023 Tottenham Hotspur 1:4 Chelsea
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.95 → now 3.80 |
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