Aston Villa — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
19.1%
Home win
Aston Villa
X
21.9%
Draw
W2
59.0%
Away win
Manchester City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X280.9%
Both teams to score
Yes60.0%
Totals 2.5
Over62.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.0% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 80.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.4% / 59.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.4% / 77.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Goal distribution model
Aston Villa × Manchester City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
7.7%
0:2
8.7%
0:3
6.1%
0:4
3.2%
0:5
1.3%
1
1:0
3.8%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
6.9%
1:4
3.6%
1:5
1.5%
2
2:0
2.5%
2:1
5.3%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
3.9%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.9%
3
3:0
1.0%
3:1
2.0%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
1:29.9%
0:28.7%
0:17.7%
1:36.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Aston Villa
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Hull 0:0
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
Manchester City
1st place · 15 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
This season: Aston Villa at home vs Manchester City away
| Metric | Aston Villa · at home | Manchester City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.57 | 1.66 |
| xG against per match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Aston Villa wins4
Draws0
Manchester City wins2
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 24.05.2026 Manchester City 1:2 Aston Villa
- 26.10.2025 Aston Villa 1:0 Manchester City
- 22.04.2025 Manchester City 2:1 Aston Villa
- 21.12.2024 Aston Villa 2:1 Manchester City
- 03.04.2024 Manchester City 4:1 Aston Villa
- 06.12.2023 Aston Villa 1:0 Manchester City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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