Ipswich Town — Nottingham Forest: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
32.8%
Home win
Ipswich Town
X
26.7%
Draw
W2
40.6%
Away win
Nottingham Forest
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.3%
Both teams to score
Yes57.4%
Totals 2.5
Over53.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Goal distribution model
Ipswich Town × Nottingham Forest
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.8%
0:1
8.2%
0:2
6.7%
0:3
3.3%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
7.2%
1:1
12.6%
1:2
8.8%
1:3
4.4%
1:4
1.6%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.2%
2:1
7.8%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
2.3%
3:1
3.4%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.6%
1:28.8%
0:18.3%
2:17.8%
1:07.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Ipswich Town
11th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Everton 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Crystal Palace 3:2
- 04.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:2
- 30.08.2026 away Man United 2:5
- 22.08.2026 home Sunderland 2:1
Nottingham Forest
13th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Coventry 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Tottenham 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Liverpool 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Leeds 0:1
This season: Ipswich Town at home vs Nottingham Forest away
| Metric | Ipswich Town · at home | Nottingham Forest · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.28 | 2.29 |
| xG against per match | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Ipswich Town wins0
Draws0
Nottingham Forest wins2
Goals per match3.50
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 15.03.2025 Ipswich Town 2:4 Nottingham Forest
- 30.11.2024 Nottingham Forest 1:0 Ipswich Town
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.44 → now 2.35 |
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