Arsenal — Everton: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
70.6%
Home win
Arsenal
X
18.8%
Draw
W2
10.6%
Away win
Everton
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X89.4%
Both teams to score
No56.8%
Totals 2.5
Over52.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.4% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 29.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Goal distribution model
Arsenal × Everton
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.3%
0:1
4.1%
0:2
1.4%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
13.0%
1:1
8.9%
1:2
3.0%
1:3
0.7%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
13.8%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
3.1%
2:3
0.7%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.7%
3:1
6.5%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
5.1%
4:1
3.4%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.1%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:013.8%
1:013.0%
3:09.7%
2:19.3%
1:18.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Arsenal
2nd place · 12 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
Everton
7th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Ipswich 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Tottenham 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home Man United 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:0
This season: Arsenal at home vs Everton away
| Metric | Arsenal · at home | Everton · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.97 | 1.48 |
| xG against per match | 0.30 | 1.42 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Arsenal wins4
Draws2
Everton wins0
Goals per match1.50
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 14.03.2026 Arsenal 2:0 Everton
- 20.12.2025 Everton 0:1 Arsenal
- 05.04.2025 Everton 1:1 Arsenal
- 14.12.2024 Arsenal 0:0 Everton
- 19.05.2024 Arsenal 2:1 Everton
- 17.09.2023 Everton 0:1 Arsenal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 8.70 → now 8.00 |
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