Sunderland — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 08.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.6%
Home win
Sunderland
X
27.0%
Draw
W2
44.3%
Away win
Chelsea
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.0%
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
Totals 2.5
Over50.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.7% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 71.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.0% / 24.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Goal distribution model
Sunderland × Chelsea
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.5%
0:1
9.4%
0:2
7.8%
0:3
3.9%
0:4
1.5%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
7.1%
1:1
12.9%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
4.7%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
4.7%
2:1
7.1%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
1.8%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.9%
0:19.4%
1:29.2%
0:27.8%
0:07.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.11.2026
Sunderland
20th place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Leeds 0:0
- 18.10.2026 away Bournemouth 0:2
- 10.10.2026 home Brighton 0:2
- 20.09.2026 away Man City 3:5
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
Chelsea
5th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Tottenham 0:2
- 17.10.2026 away Everton 2:0
- 10.10.2026 home Bournemouth 5:1
- 18.09.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 12.09.2026 home Hull 2:2
This season: Sunderland at home vs Chelsea away
| Metric | Sunderland · at home | Chelsea · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.34 | 1.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Sunderland wins2
Draws0
Chelsea wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals2/2
- 24.05.2026 Sunderland 2:1 Chelsea
- 25.10.2025 Chelsea 1:2 Sunderland
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.42 → now 3.29 |
| X | was 3.62 → now 3.48 |
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