Nottingham Forest — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 07.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
18.8%
Home win
Nottingham Forest
X
23.3%
Draw
W2
57.9%
Away win
Manchester City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X281.2%
Both teams to score
Yes57.6%
Totals 2.5
Over58.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.1% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 81.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.5% / 63.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Goal distribution model
Nottingham Forest × Manchester City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.7%
0:1
8.4%
0:2
9.3%
0:3
6.2%
0:4
3.1%
0:5
1.2%
1
1:0
4.0%
1:1
10.9%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
6.6%
1:4
3.3%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
2.7%
2:1
5.3%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
0.9%
3:1
1.9%
3:2
1.9%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.9%
1:29.9%
0:29.3%
0:18.4%
1:36.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.11.2026
Nottingham Forest
18th place · 6 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 away Ipswich 1:1
- 18.10.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 11.10.2026 away Crystal Palace 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home Coventry 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
Manchester City
1st place · 21 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Aston Villa 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Ipswich 3:2
- 11.10.2026 away Liverpool 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
This season: Nottingham Forest at home vs Manchester City away
| Metric | Nottingham Forest · at home | Manchester City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 0.90 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.25 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Nottingham Forest wins1
Draws1
Manchester City wins4
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 04.03.2026 Manchester City 2:2 Nottingham Forest
- 27.12.2025 Nottingham Forest 1:2 Manchester City
- 08.03.2025 Nottingham Forest 1:0 Manchester City
- 04.12.2024 Manchester City 3:0 Nottingham Forest
- 28.04.2024 Nottingham Forest 0:2 Manchester City
- 23.09.2023 Manchester City 2:0 Nottingham Forest
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.70 → now 4.89 |
| X | was 4.25 → now 3.98 |
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