Brighton and Hove Albion — Brentford: Win probabilities, 08.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
51.7%
Home win
Brighton and Hove Albion
X
23.9%
Draw
W2
24.4%
Away win
Brentford
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.1%
Both teams to score
Yes59.6%
Totals 2.5
Over58.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.5% / 63.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Goal distribution model
Brighton and Hove Albion × Brentford
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.3%
0:1
5.1%
0:2
3.4%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
8.2%
1:1
11.1%
1:2
6.4%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.0%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.9%
3:1
6.0%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.3%
4:1
2.8%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.1%
2:19.7%
1:08.2%
2:08.0%
1:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.11.2026
Brighton and Hove Albion
3rd place · 16 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Liverpool 0:2
- 18.10.2026 home Crystal Palace 5:0
- 10.10.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 19.09.2026 home Arsenal 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Coventry 5:0
Brentford
6th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Hull 1:1
- 17.10.2026 home Liverpool 1:2
- 10.10.2026 away Aston Villa 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Chelsea 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Bournemouth 2:2
This season: Brighton and Hove Albion at home vs Brentford away
| Metric | Brighton and Hove Albion · at home | Brentford · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 0–4–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.32 | 1.22 |
| xG against per match | 1.30 | 1.76 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.25 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 6.25 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Brighton and Hove Albion wins3
Draws2
Brentford wins1
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 21.02.2026 Brentford 0:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 22.11.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 2:1 Brentford
- 19.04.2025 Brentford 4:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 27.12.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:0 Brentford
- 03.04.2024 Brentford 0:0 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 06.12.2023 Brighton and Hove Albion 2:1 Brentford
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.03 → now 1.87 |
| W2 | was 3.44 → now 3.82 |
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