Manchester United — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 08.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.3%
Home win
Manchester United
X
25.2%
Draw
W2
31.5%
Away win
Aston Villa
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.8%
Both teams to score
Yes62.6%
Totals 2.5
Over60.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 56.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.7% / 62.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Goal distribution model
Manchester United × Aston Villa
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.3%
0:1
5.5%
0:2
4.5%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
6.7%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
5.1%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
2:19.1%
1:27.6%
1:06.7%
2:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.11.2026
Manchester United
16th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Bournemouth 0:3
- 18.10.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Tottenham 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
Aston Villa
9th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Man City 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Newcastle 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
This season: Manchester United at home vs Aston Villa away
| Metric | Manchester United · at home | Aston Villa · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.88 | 1.24 |
| xG against per match | 1.72 | 1.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Manchester United wins4
Draws1
Aston Villa wins1
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 15.03.2026 Manchester United 3:1 Aston Villa
- 21.12.2025 Aston Villa 2:1 Manchester United
- 25.05.2025 Manchester United 2:0 Aston Villa
- 06.10.2024 Aston Villa 0:0 Manchester United
- 11.02.2024 Aston Villa 1:2 Manchester United
- 26.12.2023 Manchester United 3:2 Aston Villa
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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