Arsenal — Hull City: Win probabilities, 07.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
88.9%
Home win
Arsenal
X
8.3%
Draw
W2
2.8%
Away win
Hull City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X97.2%
Both teams to score
No69.9%
Totals 2.5
Over65.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.2% |
| 12 | 91.7% | |
| X2 | 11.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Goal distribution model
Arsenal × Hull City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.2%
0:1
1.5%
0:2
0.3%
0:3
0.0%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.4%
1:1
3.7%
1:2
0.7%
1:3
0.1%
1:4
0.0%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
15.3%
2:1
5.9%
2:2
1.1%
2:3
0.1%
2:4
0.0%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
15.3%
3:1
5.9%
3:2
1.1%
3:3
0.1%
3:4
0.0%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
11.4%
4:1
4.4%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
6.9%
5:1
2.6%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:015.3%
3:015.3%
4:011.4%
1:010.4%
5:06.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.11.2026
Arsenal
2nd place · 21 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Everton 2:0
- 18.10.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Leeds 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
Hull City
10th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Fulham 0:1
- 11.10.2026 home Everton 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Newcastle 1:2
- 12.09.2026 away Chelsea 2:2
This season: Arsenal at home vs Hull City away
| Metric | Arsenal · at home | Hull City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 2.06 | 0.97 |
| xG against per match | 0.46 | 1.25 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.25 | 2.75 |
| Corners per match | 6.75 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 23.51 → now 24.22 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.