Everton — Coventry City: Win probabilities, 06.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
57.2%
Home win
Everton
X
23.4%
Draw
W2
19.4%
Away win
Coventry City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X80.6%
Both teams to score
Yes53.6%
Totals 2.5
Over54.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Goal distribution model
Everton × Coventry City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.2%
0:1
5.3%
0:2
2.8%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.3%
1:1
11.1%
1:2
5.3%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.0%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.2%
3:1
6.1%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.9%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.1%
1:010.3%
2:010.0%
2:19.9%
0:06.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.11.2026
Everton
11th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Arsenal 0:2
- 17.10.2026 home Chelsea 0:2
- 11.10.2026 away Hull 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home Ipswich 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Tottenham 0:0
Coventry City
19th place · 6 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Fulham 0:1
- 19.10.2026 away Tottenham 1:3
- 12.10.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
- 19.09.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 13.09.2026 home Brighton 0:5
This season: Everton at home vs Coventry City away
| Metric | Everton · at home | Coventry City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 1.49 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.25 | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.57 → now 1.70 |
| X | was 4.40 → now 3.98 |
| W2 | was 5.60 → now 4.74 |
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