Ipswich Town — Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 08.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
24.8%
Home win
Ipswich Town
X
24.9%
Draw
W2
50.3%
Away win
Bournemouth
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X275.2%
Both teams to score
Yes58.6%
Totals 2.5
Over56.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.7% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 75.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.9% / 82.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Goal distribution model
Ipswich Town × Bournemouth
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.9%
0:1
8.4%
0:2
8.1%
0:3
4.8%
0:4
2.1%
0:5
0.8%
1
1:0
5.3%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
5.7%
1:4
2.5%
1:5
0.9%
2
2:0
3.6%
2:1
6.5%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
3.4%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
1.4%
3:1
2.6%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
1:29.7%
0:18.4%
0:28.1%
2:16.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.11.2026
Ipswich Town
12th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Man City 2:3
- 10.10.2026 home Fulham 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Everton 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Crystal Palace 3:2
Bournemouth
13th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Man United 3:0
- 18.10.2026 home Sunderland 2:0
- 10.10.2026 away Chelsea 1:5
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
This season: Ipswich Town at home vs Bournemouth away
| Metric | Ipswich Town · at home | Bournemouth · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.04 | 1.38 |
| xG against per match | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 2.25 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Ipswich Town wins1
Draws0
Bournemouth wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals2/2
- 02.04.2025 Bournemouth 1:2 Ipswich Town
- 08.12.2024 Ipswich Town 1:2 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.35 → now 3.77 |
| W2 | was 2.08 → now 1.92 |
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