Crystal Palace — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 08.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
20.3%
Home win
Crystal Palace
X
23.6%
Draw
W2
56.1%
Away win
Liverpool
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X279.7%
Both teams to score
Yes59.9%
Totals 2.5
Over60.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.9% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 79.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.2% / 16.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
Goal distribution model
Crystal Palace × Liverpool
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.4%
0:1
7.6%
0:2
8.6%
0:3
5.8%
0:4
2.9%
0:5
1.1%
1
1:0
3.9%
1:1
10.9%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
6.6%
1:4
3.3%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
2.8%
2:1
5.6%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
1.9%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
1.1%
3:1
2.1%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.9%
1:29.9%
0:28.6%
0:17.6%
1:36.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.11.2026
Crystal Palace
17th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Newcastle 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Brighton 0:5
- 11.10.2026 home Nott'm Forest 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Leeds 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
Liverpool
4th place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Brighton 2:0
- 17.10.2026 away Brentford 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Man City 0:3
- 20.09.2026 away Bournemouth 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
This season: Crystal Palace at home vs Liverpool away
| Metric | Crystal Palace · at home | Liverpool · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–3 | 3–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.32 | 1.74 |
| xG against per match | 2.05 | 1.00 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 5.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Crystal Palace wins2
Draws1
Liverpool wins3
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 25.04.2026 Liverpool 3:1 Crystal Palace
- 27.09.2025 Crystal Palace 2:1 Liverpool
- 25.05.2025 Liverpool 1:1 Crystal Palace
- 05.10.2024 Crystal Palace 0:1 Liverpool
- 14.04.2024 Liverpool 0:1 Crystal Palace
- 09.12.2023 Crystal Palace 1:2 Liverpool
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.30 → now 4.55 |
| X | was 4.20 → now 3.94 |
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