Fulham — Newcastle United: Win probabilities, 07.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.7%
Home win
Fulham
X
26.3%
Draw
W2
31.0%
Away win
Newcastle United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.7%
Both teams to score
Yes60.4%
Totals 2.5
Over56.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.0% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.9% / 82.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Goal distribution model
Fulham × Newcastle United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.2%
0:1
5.9%
0:2
4.7%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.3%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.4%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.7%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
4.9%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
2:19.1%
1:27.6%
1:07.3%
2:06.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.11.2026
Fulham
15th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Coventry 1:0
- 17.10.2026 home Hull 1:0
- 10.10.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Man United 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Liverpool 0:0
Newcastle United
8th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:0
- 17.10.2026 home Aston Villa 0:1
- 12.10.2026 away Coventry 1:4
- 19.09.2026 home Hull 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Leeds 1:4
This season: Fulham at home vs Newcastle United away
| Metric | Fulham · at home | Newcastle United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.87 | 1.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.36 | 1.49 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Fulham wins3
Draws0
Newcastle United wins3
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 24.05.2026 Fulham 2:0 Newcastle United
- 25.10.2025 Newcastle United 2:1 Fulham
- 01.02.2025 Newcastle United 1:2 Fulham
- 21.09.2024 Fulham 3:1 Newcastle United
- 06.04.2024 Fulham 0:1 Newcastle United
- 16.12.2023 Newcastle United 3:0 Fulham
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.72 → now 3.57 |
| W2 | was 2.95 → now 3.05 |
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