Leeds United — Tottenham Hotspur: Win probabilities, 07.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
36.1%
Home win
Leeds United
X
28.3%
Draw
W2
35.6%
Away win
Tottenham Hotspur
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.7%
Both teams to score
Yes55.5%
Totals 2.5
Over50.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.4% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Goal distribution model
Leeds United × Tottenham Hotspur
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.1%
0:1
8.0%
0:2
6.1%
0:3
2.7%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
8.1%
1:1
13.5%
1:2
8.2%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
3.7%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.5%
2:18.3%
1:28.2%
1:08.1%
0:08.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.11.2026
Leeds United
7th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Sunderland 0:0
- 18.10.2026 home Man United 1:1
- 10.10.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
Tottenham Hotspur
14th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Chelsea 2:0
- 19.10.2026 home Coventry 3:1
- 10.10.2026 away Man United 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Aston Villa 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Everton 0:0
This season: Leeds United at home vs Tottenham Hotspur away
| Metric | Leeds United · at home | Tottenham Hotspur · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–3–0 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.52 | 1.00 |
| xG against per match | 1.10 | 1.52 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 2.75 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 5.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Leeds United wins0
Draws1
Tottenham Hotspur wins5
Goals per match4.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 11.05.2026 Tottenham Hotspur 1:1 Leeds United
- 04.10.2025 Leeds United 1:2 Tottenham Hotspur
- 28.05.2023 Leeds United 1:4 Tottenham Hotspur
- 12.11.2022 Tottenham Hotspur 4:3 Leeds United
- 26.02.2022 Leeds United 0:4 Tottenham Hotspur
- 21.11.2021 Tottenham Hotspur 2:1 Leeds United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.54 → now 2.64 |
| W2 | was 2.77 → now 2.68 |
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